Portfolio management – Dollar Cost Average strategy edition 3 =

Disclaimer

AllesOverCrypto likes to let people speak about their crypto adventure. From this initiative I suggested starting a guest blog series here on the website. It is important to know that I do not work at AllesOverCrypto and that everything you read in this blog is only my personal opinion and this is separate from AOC.

How is the market doing

As said at the end of blog 2, little has changed in this month. The war is still raging and unfortunately inflation has not yet been reduced . On October 13, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was announced for the month of September. Inflation has grown again by 0.4 percentage point and is now at 8.2% , the full article can be found in this link. The market reacted immediately to this: prices are again slightly lower compared to last month.

The dollar is also very strong at the moment , especially when compared to the euro or other currencies . As a result, assets are not yet in demand. People now leave their money in the bank to earn something with it. Companies are less likely to take out a loan during periods of inflation or to reinvest earned capital in assets. We see all this in the prices of the S&P and of course also the crypto world.

The feeling

The sentiment has unfortunately dropped a little further, last blog we were around 28, this has dropped towards 20. Inflation is not stagnating yet and the interest rate hikes have not yet had the desired result .

When I look at the graph below, my observation is as follows; after periods of fear, these are the red circles, come periods of greed, the green circles.

For now, we have to wait for better news, which could improve sentiment and return investors to buy assets.

 

 

Liquid stock

In the chart about liquid stock, I see that quite a bit of Bitcoin has been bought in the past period and this is being removed from the trading platforms towards cold storage / ledgers. In the overview below I have selected all trading platforms, if I look at this per exchange, the trend is quite clear; a lot is being bought at these prices . What is striking is that a lot of Bitcoin is bought behind the scenes and this does not affect the price .

These types of transactions are often done by large companies, who have access to over the counter (OTC) deals . On October 18, an agency bought no less than 48,000 Bitcoin on Coinbase and immediately removed it from the trading platform. Rumors are circulating that this may have been Tesla . It is the same number that Tesla sold in Q2 of this year , all very coincidentally.

 

 

Technical analysis

Looking at the technical analysis, I see that we have two options . The first is the small decending triangle, which should break out up or down in the coming weeks .

In my view, the more logical analysis is that we will stick around this price level for a longer period of time. If this plays out like this I’m looking at the intersection of the two extreme yellow lines , which will be around February 23rd in 2023 with a bottom price of €21,315 .

My hopes are still pinned on a year-end/Christmas rally so I might be able to trade some extra Bitcoin with well-performing altcoins.

 

 

The portfolio

In recent weeks I have faithfully purchased € 500 every Monday. Since the market is fairly flat , I have not seen a good reason to trade.

The next important item on the agenda will be the US interest rate decision on November 2. Around this period the market will still be a bit restless, I often see this trend again because people try to speculate whether we will get good or bad news regarding inflation. I choose not to participate in this myself.

 

 

If you want to know more about who I am or what I do, check out my website.

If my investment strategy appeals to you, copy my crypto strategy via the Iconomi platform.

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