BTC On-Chain Analysis: MVRV Bounces Off Crucial Uptrend Level

A look at the chain indicators, more specifically the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) to try and determine the direction of the next move.

current value of the indicator has historically acted as a floor and has been the catalyst for bullish movements in the price of Bitcoin (BTC).

Historic peaks MVRV

MVRV is the relationship between the market and the levels of realized capitalization. Simply put, an MVRV of 2 means that the market capitalization is twice the realized capitalization.

So far, the indicator has reached five highs, indicated by the black arrows.

  • June 2011 – 6.92
  • April 2013 – 5.25
  • November 2013 – 5.71
  • December 2017 – 4.33
  • February 2021 – 3.95

Glass node graph

refore, the top of 2021 had the lowest value of the five. It is possible that both the price and the indicator will eventually create higher highs, similar to what they did in 2013.

Current reading

current value of MVRV is 1.75. level has not been reached since before the rally started, particularly in September 2020.

If we were to treat the MVRV chart as a regular price chart, we would expect the 1.5-1.6 area to act as support as it was the catalyst for the entire bullish move that eventually led to the all-time high.

Glass node graph

Historically, the 1.5-1.6 zone has been a satisfactory indicator of the direction of the trend. above values ​​showed an uptrend, while the lower ones showed a downtrend.

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Added to this, the area caused numerous rebounds acting as support.

MVRV first erupted over this area in September 2016. It subsequently returned and validated it as support the following month (black arrow) and continued above it until it reached its previous all-time high of December 2017.

In 2018, a decline below this area confirms that the trend is bearish, while MVRV rebounded shortly after deviating below the area in 2020.

Glass node graph

Short-term MVRV

short-term fork MVRV fell below 0.75. This means that the market capitalization is less than the realized capitalization, which means that participants already have a significant loss.

se values ​​have historically been associated with lows.

Considering that the regular MVRV is at a point that has historically initiated rebounds, the capitulation in short-term holders further consolidates the possibility of a rebound.


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