Australian Dollar, AUD / USD, AU Trade Balance, Oil Prices – Talking Points
Australian trade data in the spotlight for today’s Asia Pacific session
Oil prices are falling after the EIA shows a large build-up of inventories
AUD / USD targets higher as price struggles with 20-day SMA
Asia-Pacific Forecast Thursday
Australian dollar is in the limelight of today’s Asia-Pacific trading session, with Australia reporting September trade data. Analysts expect the figure to cross the wires at AU $ 12.2 billion as of 00:30 GMT. It would be below A $ 15.07 billion in August, when an energy crisis caused by rising natural gas prices in Europe and Asia helped boost coal exports. se prices remained high in September, leaving the data imprint open to a potential heartbeat or oversized error.
Traders ditched the US dollar overnight despite the Federal Reserve announcing a reduction in balance sheet growth. Fed said it would begin reducing asset purchases later this month at a monthly rate of $ 15 billion, consisting of $ 10 billion in Treasuries and $ 5 billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). . DXY index of the US dollar fell despite a carast increase in yields on the 2- and 5-year Treasuries.
Today they will bring data on Japan’s foreign bond investments for the week ending October 30. Final Japanese PMI readings for October will cross the wires later in the day. However, APAC operators will work to assimilate the Federal Reserve’s decision. However, a carast risk move appears to start today’s session, which will likely continue outside of the risks of unseen events.
Elsewhere, oil prices have fallen after an overnight slump. Benchmark crude oil and Brent indices accelerated lower after US government data showed higher-than-expected inventory build-up. weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) report for the week ending October 29 showed build 3.29 million barrels. This was well above the 2.22 million barrel increase forecast by analysts.
AUD / USD technical forecast
AUD / USD surged overnight after prices tested the 38.2% Fib retracement level from the September / October move. Prices are currently struggling with the rise of the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), with Fib 23.6% directly leading the way. MACD weakness is cararating alongside a rise in the RSI reading, which suggests that the bullish momentum may strengthen. A break above the 20-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci could open the door for a test of the October swing at 0.7556.
AUD / USD 8-hour chart
Read also Monthly Report on Non-Farm Jobs in the United States at 1230 GMT
Chart created with TradingView
– Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst at DailyFX.com
Contact Thomas, use the comment section below or @FxWestwateren